Too Few Good Men:
The Security Implications of Russian Demographics

Julie DaVanzo, Olga Oliker, and Clifford Grammich

From the days of the Russian Empire until the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sheer size and population of the territory governed from Moscow helped to guarantee its place among the world's great powers. The U.S.S.R. was not only physically larger than any other country in the world, but it was also the third most populous for most of its history, behind only China and India. Such circumstances fed a legacy of Soviet gigantism and widespread views that a large population contributed to military strength.

Times have changed. While the Russian Federation is physically still the largest state in the world, it is only the seventh most populous nation, trailing China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan. Moreover, recent and projected population losses caused by a number of deaths nearly double that of births will push Russia further down the ranks of the most populous nations. In the past decade alone, the Russian population has decreased by three million; over the next ten years, it is projected to decrease by another three million. By 2020, Bangladesh and Nigeria are projected to surpass Russia in population; by 2040, should current projections prove accurate, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mexico, and the Philippines will do so as well.

Russia's options for maintaining its security and stability are limited by its demographic circumstances. Russia is not the only country to confront these problems, but it has fewer alternatives for mitigating the negative effects of population loss than do wealthier states. At the same time, Russia's role in the world, its nuclear arsenal, and its geostrategic location make its security a concern beyond its borders, particularly in this age of interrelated transnational threats, such as organized crime, proliferation, terrorism, and trafficking in people and illegal materials…

Julie Davanzo directs the Population Matters program at RAND. Olga Oliker is a defense policy analyst at RAND. Clifford Grammich is a member of the RAND Research Communications Group.

NOTE: The editors apologize for the following error that appeared in the printed issue of the Journal: the bottom two Y-axis captions of Figure 3 on p. 21 should read "Other External" and "All Other" respectively. This error has been corrected in the PDF below.