A Corrosive, Not Explosive, Threat:
HIV/AIDS, Demographic Change, and
Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa

David Gordon

The HIV/AIDS epidemic is profoundly altering the demographic picture of Sub-Saharan Africa in ways that are likely to undermine societal and economic structures at the household and community levels. In the long term, these trends will likely diminish state capacity, and perhaps, stability. The disease is reducing population growth rates, shortening life expectancy, skewing age and sex structures, and increasing infant and overall mortality rates throughout the region. It is attacking economically-productive age groups, producing large numbers of orphans, undermining the family structure and the social fabric of local communities, and driving many into poverty. The most affected countries will be threatened by the loss of skilled professionals, the erosion of civil society, the decay in the state's ability to implement policies, and reduced economic growth; thereby rendering relatively fragile states even weaker. The deterioration in the quality of life could also undermine state legitimacy and contribute to civil violence and political disorder. Development, democratic institution building, and security are likely to be negatively impacted, especially in those states that lack the political will to respond to the crisis. However, these negative projections do not predestine Sub-Saharan Africa to a grim future…

David Gordon is Director of the Office of Transnational Issues at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.