Zimbabwe on the Brink

John Prendergast and Jamal Jafari

Zimbabwe, once the richest country in sub-Saharan Africa, is now mired in its deepest economic and political crisis since independence. Famine, unemployment, political violence, and skyrocketing inflation have become all too common aspects of daily life. President Robert Mugabe blames the crisis on a Western plot to unseat him, while opposition leaders blame the government's policies for creating a "crisis of legitimacy." Because of this deep divide, a wholly internal solution is unlikely. Only regional or international diplomacy and enhanced pressure can bring about a solution that both parties will accept. As the region's leader, South Africa could spearhead the international effort to pressure both parties to adopt a mutually acceptable solution. By aiding the resolution of this conflict, South Africa would not only alleviate Zimbabwe's problems, but would also secure political and economic gains for itself and the region.

Mugabe remains tactically allied with South African President Thabo Mbeki and other liberation leaders in Africa. These leaders wield great influence in the continent's international organizations, such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU). In contrast, Zimbabwe's opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has won support from labor interests and freely-elected former opposition parties in Africa, as well as Western governments, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. The Commonwealth-an international organization composed mainly of the UK and its former colonies, including Zimbabwe-has sent mixed messages regarding the conflict. Despite these differing positions, a combination of these international actors must converge to stabilize Zimbabwe.

John Prendergast is Special Advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group. Previously, he was Director of African Affairs on the National Security Council.

Jamal Jafari is Research Assistant at the International Crisis Group's Africa Program. He is pursuing a J.D. at the Washington College of Law at American University.