September 17, 2013
Mehta’s research on stock markets cycles examines the annual and seasonal movement of stock prices. Employing a new statistical approach on daily returns of the Dow from its inception in May 1896 through the middle of last month, he attempts to provide investors a means of determining the best time of year or even week to invest, suggesting the fall is not that time.
The patterns that emerged from his analysis are statistically significant, he says. “The autumn does appear to be the riskiest time of year,” with October being the riskiest month. “It’s not clear, even with the other factors weighing on the market, where things will go from here,” he said. However, Mehta adds, “If you’re patient, in the long run it should be fine.”
With more than 16 years of professional experience, including a leadership role as the Director of Analytics for the U.S. Department of the Treasury in addition to a dozen years on Wall Street performing proprietary trading and economic research for firms such as Salomon/Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, Mehta’s research provides critical insight into market trends.
Read the full New York Times article here. Mehta publishes his research on his blog Statistical Ideas. You can also read his latest post Statistics for the Next 100 Years for the American Statistical Association.